Draft matrix

The draft matrix selects an ideal remaining roster, then chooses the next pick from that selection. Use this page to understand positional needs, candidate order and clock-limited publication.

Which players and capacity are available?

Input	Rule
Pick events	Redis draft_picks:{leagueId} consumer group
Identity	Resolve ESPN IDs through the player crosswalk; persist picks
Pool	Requested season/week projections, week 1 by default
Exclusion	Already in draft_picks; not post-draft roster ownership
VORP	Recompute coefficient, structural baselines and scarcity over the undrafted pool
Capacity	Configured starters plus BE; exclude IR
Missing BE setting	Total roster-size fallback 16
FLEX	Default RB/WR/TE shares, largest-remainder rounding
Bench	Same RB/WR/TE shares

starting_need[position] = max(0, positional_slots + FLEX_share − drafted_by_us)
position_cap[position] = max(0, positional_slots + FLEX_share + bench_share − drafted_by_us)
target_picks = min(remaining_picks, pool_size,
                   Σ min(position_cap[position], available_count[position]))

How is the immediate target selected?

Step	Rule
Remaining-roster ILP	Maximize total scarcity-adjusted VORP with exactly target_picks and position upper caps
Required negative-value picks	Equality forces picks even when all values are zero/negative
Empty pool, zero capacity or non-optimal solve	No recommendation
First ranking tier	Selected players at positions still needing starters; descending VORP
Second ranking tier	Remaining selected players; descending VORP
Candidate limit	Five; no additional equal-score preference

Starter need comes first

A lower-valued needed starter can precede a higher-valued bench candidate. The immediate pick comes from the selected remaining-roster solution, not from the whole pool's highest score.

When does the listener recompute?

Event	Behavior
Startup	Seed VORP lookup; recover this consumer's unacknowledged backlog
Opponent pick	Recompute when our turn is next under the known snake order
Our confirmed pick	Record whether it matched the attempted target
New filled pick	Cancel stale pending publisher
Draft complete	Stop listener
Processed Stream event	Acknowledge after processing

The Redis board records recommendation, candidates, VORP lookup and listener/timer evidence.

What limits auto-publication?

Setting or gate	Default behavior
Hold delay	8 seconds
Pick clock	90 seconds, measured from upstream Stream event
Safety margin	5 seconds
Minimum auto-publish window	10 seconds; clamp delay to available window
Pause/autodraft/mode	Gate the publisher
Transient failure	Retry every 2 seconds within the clock
Three consecutive failed publications	Trip auto-publish circuit breaker
Next pick cycle	May re-enable circuit-breaker disable; preserve manual disable
Confirmed ESPN rejection	Advance to next precomputed candidate after readback

Do not treat uncertainty as rejection

Backlog processing does not restart the clock. A recommendation, queued target and landed ESPN pick are separate evidence; uncertainty does not authorize choosing another player.

Listener CLI arguments

The API normally provisions the listener Job. For a direct invocation, IDs must name the intended draft.

Argument	Requirement
--league-id	Required
--team-id	Required
--season	Required
--week	Optional; default 1
--auto-draft-delay-seconds	Optional

Related

• Pre-draft VORP
• Historical draft comparisons
• Implementation: draft_matrix.py